Updated 21 November 2019:

Sold my shares at 117.4 SEK on the 21 November 2019. The price of SBB AB B-shares was trading at 23.5 SEK, implying a discount of ~6.5 % if I held my shares until the offer had gone through (beginning of January 2020). Even though a bid for one of my companies is welcome in the short-run I believe shareholders of Hemfosa would have been better of as a standalone company.

Why did I choose to sell now?

I have no interest in becoming a shareholder in SBB since I don’t know mcuh about the company, its management or its properties

There is a risk that the deal will not go through (risk inherent in takeovers)

SBB AB is currently trading at a premium of 80% compared to its NAV, while Hemfosa is trading at a premium of 40%

One year ago I purchased my first shares in Hemfosa Fastigheter following the spinoff of Nyfosa. Spinoff-situations are usually a great way for investors to achieve superior returns, and this was one of the reasons why I invested in the company in the first place (read more about spinoff situations here). Since then the shares has returned great value to its shareholders, and with the recent takeover announcement by SBB I have a total return on my holdings of ~100%.

On Friday 15 November Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB (Ticker: SBB) made a public offer on Hemfosa Fastigheter, with a mix between shares in SBB and a cash offer. Hence, the correct price for HEMF will now be a function of SBB’s share price going forward.

Pre-bid, the shares in Hemfosa traded around 102 SEK, and SBB traded around 24 SEK. The bid presented therefore a premium of approximately 22% and priced Hemfosa at 126 SEK. Following the announcement, shares in SBB dropped 8% and therefore lowering the value of the takeover bid (this is normal when a company announces its intent to acquire another company).

Source: Google Finance

The offer

SBB offers each shareholder in Hemfosa the following consideration alternatives. Offer for Hemfosa common shares (the “Common Base Case Consideration”)

  • In respect of 55 percent of the number of Hemfosa common shares tendered by such shareholder: 5.5 SBB Class B common shares per Hemfosa common share, and
  • in respect of the remaining 45 percent of the number of Hemfosa common shares tendered by such shareholder: SEK 120.00 in cash per Hemfosa common share.

The acceptance period will commence on 19 November and end on 20 December. The deal will most likely go through as the board of directors recommend the offer and large shareholders has indicated that they will accept the offer.

What is the correct price of Hemfosa’s shares today?

As mentioned above, the share price going forward will be a function of the share price in SBB. Therefore, the final premium might be higher or lower than the premium at announcement. Shareholders in Hemfosa should therefore closely monitor the share price in SBB. As per close on Friday 16 November the calculation is therefore as follows:

Author’s own calculations

Based on closing prices on Friday the shares in Hemfosa is trading at a discount of ~3.5%

Under the «Mix & Match Facility» presented, the shareholders can choose between a pure cash offer, shares in SBB or to accept a partial cash offer and shares in SBB. The result of this depends on the choices made by other Hemfosa shareholders, as there are limitations set by SBB. If you choose to wait, the announcement will be made on or around 20 December.

If you have less than 50 shares you will receive an all-cash-offer at closing of acquisition.

Should you sell your shares in Hemfosa in the market or accept the offer from SBB?

It depends.

It depends on:

  • whether you are interested in becoming a shareholder in SBB
  • how many shares in Hemfosa you own
  • choices made by other investors under the “Mix & Match Facility”
  • share price development of Hemfosa and SBB in the coming days / weeks.
  • the probability of the deal going through

Should you buy shares in Hemfosa to collect the current discount?

This is called “Risk-Merger Arbitrage”, and it is not recommended for private investors to try to exploit anomalies or mispricing in securities. There are several risk factors you have to consider:

  • The probability of the deal going through
  • Time value of money (time until the deal is completed)
  • Declining share price in SBB (usually a risk-merger arbitrage also includes a short position in the acquiring company).

Disclaimer: I own stocks in Hemfosa Fastigheter.

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It goes without saying that the world tomorrow will not be the same as the world yesterday. Changes happen constantly, and the changes may be of a temporary character, but others are so powerful that they will result in changes for the society on a fundamental level.

I have written a short article describing 7 Megatrends and presents 20 Nordic companies which will benefit from these seven megatrends.

Enter your email on my subscription list and receive a free copy of the PDF (link enclosed in welcome message). I will not bombard you with emails but send you regular updates once a month with past write-ups, dividend income updates and other articles on my blog.

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Investors has in the recent years become more aware of the companies they invest in and “green” companies has received a premium valuation. This premium valuation may be justified, but it can also be a sign of a overvaluated area to invest in. Either way, the increased focus has caused the cost of capital of these companies to go down, investors to receive a high return on their investments and the market expects these companies to contribute to the UN Sustainable Development Goals in year to come.

The Sustainable Development Goals are the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all. They address the global challenges we face, including those related to poverty, inequality, climate, environmental degradation, prosperity, and peace and justice. In this post you’ll be introduced to 5 Top Nordic ESG-companies that will benefit from the increased focus from investors on climate change, pollution and plastic in the sea.

The 5 Top Nordic ESG-companies in this article adresses various goals. Below you can find the goals that these five companies are most focused on:

  • Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
  • Goal 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
  • Goal 13: Climate Action
  • Goal 14: Life Below Water

#1 Tomra Systems

Tomra was founded in 1972 on an innovation for return of emty beverage containers, and has since then grown into a global company with market-leading positions in their two segments; Sorting Solutions and Collection Solutions. One of the biggest environmental challenges today is plastic in the ocean, and continuing on today’s path will cause the ocean to contain more plastic than fish by 2050. Herein lies the great business potential for Tomra Systems as more focus will be on collecting waste, recycle it and create a circular economy (moving away from the linear economy).

Tomra Investor Presentation

Financials:

P/EP/BNet debt / EBITDA EV / EBITDA Dividend yieldPayout ratioROE
45 7 2.0 27 1.05%* 50 %*15.3%

The current valuation of the company is the only drawback as it is trading at a P/E of 45 and a EV / EBITDA of 27. Tomra has increased their dividends since 2007 and has paid a consistent dividend since 1993.

Source. Borsdata.se * adjusted for extraordinary dividend in 2018

#2 Beijer Ref

Beijer Ref is one of the largest refrigeration wholesalers in the world and has also operations in air conditioning and heat pumps.

Within the EU, a new F-gas regulation was published in April 2014 which increases the demand for the phasing out of HFC(3) refrigerants with a high greenhouse impact. The F-gas regulation also regulates the authority for intervening in the refrigerant cycle in order to avoid leakage, all in order to reduce the discharges. The new F-gas regulation will also regulate the imported volume of refrigerants into the EU with a falling import volume until 2030. This is to give owners of installations time to adapt their selection of refrigerant (source: Beijer Ref).

This EU-regulation will keep demand for Beijer Ref’s products high in the coming decade since few retailers has replaced their old refrigerators. Furthermore, the heat pump segment is also experiencing high growth since warmer summers drives demand for heat pumps (can also be used for cooling).

Financials:

P/EP/B Net debt / EBITDA EV / EBITDA Dividend yieldPayout ratioROE
40.4 7.9 2.2 24.2 1.1% 45.2%19.7%
Source. Borsdata.se

The company has paid a dividend since its spinoff from Beijer Electronics in 2010 and paid out an extraordinary dividend based on the 2018 financials.

#3 Eolus Vind

Eolus Vind is Sweden’s first commercial wind power developer. Since inception in 1990, the company has become a leading Nordic wind power developer and has installed and delivered more than 540 wind turbines. The core business is to construct wind power facilities in favorable wind locations and transfer them to customers. The company operates in the Nordics, Baltics and the US and the company is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Small Cap.

Demand for electricity and wind power is expected to increase over the next decades at a 7 % CAGR. The shift to renewable energy will require investments in wind power parks, as there is little room for more hydro power and solar power is less competitive in the Nordic region due to the climate

Financials:

P/EP/B Net debt/ EBITDA EV / EBITDA Dividend yieldPayout ratioROE
20.2 3.0 (6.5) 15.1 1.4%28.1%14.9%
Source. Borsdata.se

The company has paid out a steady dividend in the past decade, and paid out an extra ordinary dividend in 2014. The company announced that it will pay out a dividend of 1.5 SEK on the basis of 2018-2019 financials, even though the market expected it to distribute an additional lumpsum due to its net cash position.

#4 Scatec Solar

Scatec Solar develops, builds, owns and operates solar power plants across emerging markets. Technical improvements has changed the solar power industry, and it is expected that the industry will be even more competitive compared to fossil fuels and coal in the coming decade.

Scatec Solar’s business setup is positioned to provide electricity to energy-demanding regions, where the number of sunhours is an obvious comparative advantage. The solar industry in general is subject to governmental incentive programs in order to facilitate increased capacity and energy production from this source. Typically, Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) schemes are used to improve the economics for a renewable energy provider. The company signs Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) typically on a 20-25 year basis which gives great visibility in the company’s earnings and cash flows.

Scatec Solar has an aggressive target of 4.5GW of installed capacity by the end of 2021, and as of end of Q3 the installed capacity is approximately 1.2GW. This means that in order for the company to defend its current valuation it must deliver on its project backlog. The company announced a new segment, Release, which is a small-scale redeployable solar power generator. The ambition is to grow the new segment by 300 – 500 MW per year from 2022 and onwards.

Financials:

P/EP/B Net debt/ EBITDA EV / EBITDA Dividend yieldPayout ratioROE
NA 3.8 (1.9) 7.9 0.9%NA 0.51%

Source. Borsdata.se

As more projects are finalised the earnings and cash flows will increase substantially in years to come. Based on the dividends distributed so far it is expected that the dividend growth will be attractive for dividend growth investors in the coming years.

#5 Nederman Holding

Nederman, The Clean Air Company, is one of the world’s leading experts in creating solutions for handling and recycling of production waste streams. Their products and solutions for eco-efficient manufacturing contribute to improved production economics, safer work places and reduced environmental impact.

Goal No 12 “Sustainable consumption and production” is about promoting resource and energy efficiency, sustainable infrastructure, and providing access to basic services, green and decent jobs and a better quality of life for all. One of the targets for this goal is to substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse by 2030.

According to the Health Effects Institute (HEI) in the US, 95 percent of the world’s population is exposed every day to poor quality air and the solutions to current problems of air pollution largely can be found in industry. Solutions provided by Nederman is filtering, cleaning and recycling of air to make industrial environments more efficient, safe and sustainable.

Financials:

P/EP/B Net debt/ EBITDA EV / EBITDA Dividend yieldPayout ratioROE
16.93.1 2.010.7 2% 33.2%18.2%
Source. Borsdata.se

Disclaimer: I hold various positions in Tomra, Beijer Ref, Eolus Vind, Scatec Solar and may, in the future, initiate a position in the Nederman Holding.

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It’s time to sum up this month’s dividends, even though October is not over yet. I will not receive any more dividends this month and for October I recorded 791 NOK. This is down from last year, but last year I only received dividends from ABG Sundal Collier (which I offloaded during the year). This year I received dividends from three companies, which may be an indication that my portfolio is more diversified compared to last year.

I received the monthly dividend from TransAlta Renewables, quarterly dividend from Hemfosa and semi-annual dividends from Beijer Ref. If we include the witholding tax subtracted from the dividends my dividends this month is actually 902 NOK.

Current dividend yield for my portfolio is 3.7 % compared to 4.1%. The reason why my yield is lower since last month is because I’ve purchased some shares in Nekkar , with no dividend payouts, because I sold some shares in Eolus and because the yield in Tomra and NIBE is lower than my previous dividend yield. The dividend yield is also lower because the share price of my holdings has increased.

If you want to know why I decided to purchase shares in Nekkar you should read my write – up here: Nekkar – time to unveild value.

Above you can find what I expect to receive in dividends in 2020. I’ve estimated that my dividends will increase to ~27.000 NOK, which is an increase of 40%. This increase is due to dividend growth from my companies, but mostly due to purchase of new companies. In October I’ve bought shares in:

Every month I will post an update on my monthly dividends. Here you can find last the update for September.

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This company is not what you would expect to find in my portfolio, nevertheless I bought a small holding in the company following a write-up by Focused Compunding and Vetle Forsland. I bought into the company at 3.05 NOK per share, subsequent to the company distributing a dividend of 4 NOK per share.

A little summary of what has happened in Nekkar (formerly know as TTS Group) in the past months. Currently the company is undergoing a major transformation as they have sold the majority of their former business to Cargotech, returned 4 NOK per share to equity holders (~55% of enterprise value), acquired Intellilift, changed name from TTS Group to Nekkar, and are now building a more diversified company from the ground.

The company is a micro cap with a total capitalisation of approximately 300 million NOK (~ 30 MUSD) and there is, in my opinion, a lot of uncertainty in their future business areas. Usually I buy solid companies with increasing dividends and a strong track-record, but this company does not tick the boxes in my dividend growth investment strategy. So, why did I buy into this company? In short, the company holds ~3 NOK per share in cash and the stock trades at 3 NOK. Basically, you get Syncrolift for free and access to their other business areas, even though I would argue that only focusing on the highly profitable company, Syncrolift, would be the best way going forward.

I’ll shortly go through the company’s business areas before looking at the financials.

Three business areas

Syncrolift – supplier of ship-handling solutions for shipyards. This is the gem in their portfolio, with stabile margins, 75% market share worldwide, upfront payments by customers totalling 2NOK per share and a all time high order backlog. The company operates in a highly cyclical industry, but the order backlog will ensure that the company is operational and recording revenues until end of 2022.

New Business Areas:

The new business areas will probably be given the most attention from the management in the upcoming years. Some segments will be financed by the profit and float from Syncrolift, but if Nekkar decides to aggressively pursue opportunities in these segments I do believe that the company will have to raise capital, and then most probable through the equity markets.

Aquaculture – this segment may be a drain on the company’s cash flow going forward, since they will be developing solutions for closed cage salmon farming. Their concept is developed in close cooperation with one of the industry’s largest, most successful and reputable companies but they have not yet disclosed the name of their partner.

Currently, this segment does not have any earnings to report and the info on their site is full of popular buzzwords such as “sustainable solutions”, “circular economy” and “digitalization”.

Digital: Intellilift – a 51% share was acquired in Q2 2019. Intellilift is a software company which develops control systems, data software and visualization tools for remote operations in the offshore energy business. The company is cash break-even on a running basis, but it is not showing positive earnings. Examples of present customers are top-tier end customers like AkerBP (drilling operations) and Ørsted (offshore wind).

Offshore Energy & Renewables – from their company presentation at the Pareto Conference on they have listed this as a new business area. Due to the net cash position, I believe the next acquisition by Nekkar will be in this segment. 100 million NOK is at the parent company level, which doesn’t present a opportunity to make a major purchase.

Financials:

I will only focus on the continued business, as the discontinued business is no longer relevant for the company. To review the Q2 – report there will be a lot of factors that disturbs the comparisons with previous periods (changes to IFRS 15 / 16, acquisitions and discontinued business). To explain all changes would be very messy, hence only focusing on status quo and Nekkar going forward will give you enough information to make an investment decision.

The profitable part of Nekkar has a solid platform with good margins and the possibility to grow in the aftersales market (services and upgrades). We see that the other segments does not contribute to an increasing EPS for the company at the moment and I’m hoping that the company will limit its acquisitions going forward, focus on Syncrolift and distribute remaining cash to shareholders. Though, I do not expect this to happen – especially not in the short run.

Source: Interim report Q2 – Nekkar ASA
Source: Interim report Q2 – Nekkar ASA

I finish this write-up with an exctract from the write-up by Focused Compounding “The company (Syncrolift) has a backlog that should keep them busy for the next 3-4 years. Some of that backlog is paid for in cash up front. So, here we had a company trading for less than net cash (though some of the cash was unearned revenue – also known as “float” – provided by customers) with no further needs for capital. Since Syncrolift is paid partially up front and has very little need for PP&E and things like that it would normally have negative invested capital in the business. This means that if Syncrolift were to grow revenue, earnings, free cash flow, etc. by about 6% a year – which is about what it probably has done over the last 25 years – it would be able to pay shareholders a dividend of literally everything it reported in earnings and that dividend would also increase at 6% a year. That’s the beauty of a business with no need for additional capital as it grows. As a shareholder, you get to have your cake and eat it too. Cake here being “free cash flow”

Initiated a position in Boule Diagnostics at 49.50 SEK on 1 October 2019. In this post you’ll find a short intro to the company and the reason why I added a MedTech company to my portfolio.

About the company: Boule Diagnostics AB is a global diagnostics company that develops, manufactures and markets instruments and consumable products for blood diagnostics. The company serves hospitals, clinics, laboratories and companies within blood diagnostics, in both human and veterinary haematology. Haematology (first difficult word) is the study of the physiology of the blood.

Boule operates mainly in the decentralised haematology segment, which consists of smaller hospitals, clinics, laboratories and healthcare centres.

Megatrend: Growing total world population, increased age of world population (geriatric, second difficult word), increased digital analysis of blood tests (accuracy and speed of analysis) and humanisation of pets are all megatrends in which the company will benefit from.

The video below is from a company presentation in September, and gives a lot of information about the company, future prospects and their products.

Dividend: Currenctly trading at a low yield, 1.2 % as per 1 October, but the past dividend growth and expected future dividend growth is great. I did not invest in the company solely based on the dividend prospects, as I believe most of the expected total annual returns will come from earnings growth (expect 7% CAGR going forward) and a multiple expansion due to the depressed share price the past year.

Source: Borsdata.se

Share price: The share price has plummeted due to the american FDA putting their production under scrutiny back in 2018. There has not been any news recently regarding this issue, but there is expected that a clarification will come in Q4 2019. Nevertheless, the share price seems to have bottomed out.

Source: TradingView

I bought my first shares on 25 January 2019 at 56.50 SEK per share. In this post you’ll find my investment thesis and the reason why I sold 25 % of my holdings in the company on 25 September 2019.

Updated 16 October 2019: Sold an additional 25 % of my original holdings in Eolus Vind at 122.6 SEK per share. My holdings in the company is now 50% of my initial position, and is now the third smallest holding in my portfolio.

Introduction: Eolus Vind is Sweden’s first commercial wind power developer. Since inception in 1990, the company has become a leading Nordic wind power developer and has installed and delivered more than 540 wind turbines. The core business is to construct wind power facilities in favorable wind locations and transfer them to customers. The company operates in the Nordics, Baltics and the US and the company is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Small Cap.

Investment thesis: Demand for electricity and wind power is expected to increase over the next decades at a 7 % CAGR. The shift to renewable energy will require investments in wind power parks, as there is little room for more hydro power and solar power is less competitive in the Nordic region due to the climate. For more details see analysis by Introduce.


Why did I choose to sell 25% of my holdings?

When I decide to part with an investment it is mostly because the investment thesis did not play out as I thought, the investment case changed or the company announced a dividend cut. In this case, I actually violate my own rules, but I’ll try to justify my reasoning below.

First, I only sold a quarter of my holdings, hence I still have a great exposure to the company. The shares I sold has been held for 9 months and gave me a return of ~83% (including dividends), which is greatly above what I expected in January.

  • Secondly, I see limited triggers in the company the next couple of years since there are less projects under development.
  • Increased controversy surrounding wind power, especially in Norway, might increase the project risk at Öyfjellet and other ongoing and future project.
  • I bought the shares at 56.50 SEK, with an implied yield of 2.7% (1.5 SEK per year). With a share price of 102 SEK the yield is around 1.5%. I do expect though that the company will announce an extraordinary dividend due to their strong cash position (expectations in the market of 10 SEK per share), but this is a one-time occurence.
  • The company became my largest holding and I wanted to reduce my exposure to a small cap company.
  • My exposure to the green economy is too high at the moment (e.g. Brookfield Renewable Partners, TransAlta Renewables, Scatec Solar to name a few).

Will I sell future holdings in the company? It depends on the performance going forward, but I’m definitely in it for the long run.

9 out of 12 months are over and it’s time to sum up the dividends for September. Last year the dividens for September ended on 312 NOK, while this year I recorded dividends of in total 1 340 NOK.

I received the monthly dividend from TransAlta Renewables, quarterly dividend from Mowi and semi-annual dividends from Castellum and Wärtsilä.

The current dividend yield for my portfolio is 4.1%.

I purchased Equinor last month, and subsequent to my buy the company announced a program for repurchase of own shares, which is another way to distribute cash to its shareholders. Read the journal entry here!

I added some shares in Castellum AB after the real estate sector was downgraded by Pareto Securities. The company has increased their dividends the past 22 years, and I expect them to announce a dividend increase for 2019 as well, since their property management income is up 9% as per end of Q2. Read more here

I bought my first shares in Securitas at 147 SEK on the 10 September 2019. The share price reacted very negative on Q2 2019 – figures. I believe the company is well managed, has a stabile growth outlook due to increased urbanisation, promising acquisitions and necessary investments in security technology. Read more here.

On the 11 September I almost doubled my post in TransAlta Renewables, which is a monthly dividend payer.

Finally, I decided to sell 25 % of my holdings in Eolus Vind, find out why I violated my own rules for when to sell a stock.

Every month I will post an update on my monthly dividends. Here you can find last the update for August. Subscribe below to receive a notification when a new post is out.

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Transaction costs are a frequent discussion point among retail investors and I will in this post explain some of the hidden transactions costs that most retail investors forget and why, as a dividend investor, it is important to keep costs at a minimum.

The ordinary brokerage fee is easy to calculate and is often a minimum fee or a percentage of the transaction.

Do you have an overview of the price of the products in your shopping cart?

One of the costs that are easy to forget is the cost arising from the “Bid/Ask – spread”. For the most liquid stocks, the bid/ask-spread can be extremely small, but for the more illiquid stocks the cost will have a greater impact on your return. Let’s say you consider purchasing Equinor ASA, which is a quite liquid stock. The shares last recorded price is NOK 150. The current ASK-price in the market is NOK 151, while the current BID-price is NOK 149. To purchase the stock you have to pay NOK 151 and you will incur a transaction cost immediately of NOK 1, or ~0.6 %. If you decide to sell your shares in the future you’ll once more pay this bid/ask-cost. The power of dividend investing stems from reinvesting your dividends. The effect of interest compounding goes down due to this liquidity cost and is also one of the cons of dividend investing.

Have you ever made an currency exchange at an airport? If you have, you know the bank screws you over big time. Brokers also knows how to milk their customers when it comes to currency exchanges. When purchasing stocks in foreign currencies they charge you a currency mark-up. This foreign exchange transaction cost will often be as large or larger than the ordinary brokerage fee! For stocks that doesn’t distribute dividends to their shareholders this will mostly be a one-time transaction fee, but for dividend investors this fee will be “charged” every time you receive a dividend. The mark-up ranges from 0.075% to 0.25% per transaction. Every time you receive a dividend, your broker can record an income in their books.

So, even though the most quoted transaction costs is the ordinary brokerage fee, this is not the cost that you should pay to much attention to. It is the liquidity cost (bid/ask spread) and the currency mark-up by your broker that robs you in the long run!

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I increased my holdings in this monthly dividend paying company on 11 September 2019. TransAlta Renewables is a renewable energy infrastructure company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and is traded in Canadian Dollars. TransAlta renewables is the renewable energy subsidiary of TransAlta Corporation. The parent company owns roughly 61% of TransAlta renewable’s stock.

Majority of the company’s revenues comes from power generation from wind turbines (46%) and natural gas (47%). It has access to growth capital through the capital markets as well as their parent company; TransAlta Corporation. Find enclosed an investor presentation from May 2019.

Dividend: As mentioned the company pays out a monthly dividend and the current yield is ~7 %. I don’t believe the dividend will increase in the coming periods, but due to the contract length of their assets I believe that the current dividend is sustainable and attractive at these levels. The monthly dividends, stable income and low volatility gives the stock characteristics of a fixed income security, which is a great component for any portfolio.

Historically, the dividend has a 5 % annual CAGR, but the dividend did not increase from 2017 to 2019 suggesting that the future increases will be as great as in the past.